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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-04-12T02:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-12T02:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30004/-1
CME Note: Faint halo visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The potential source is a filament eruption centered around S15W20 with liftoff starting around 2024-04-12T00:16Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and a faint EUV wave may also be observed in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines are also visible in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also seen south of disk center from the point of view of STEREO A EUV imagery. ARRIVAL: Characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 1nT at 2024-04-16T09:20Z to 12nT at 10:07Z. A subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed was also observed from ~360 km/s at 07:34Z to 410 km/s at 07:59Z. This was accompanied by a slight increase in density as well, reaching 16 N(cm^-3) at 09:36Z. However, ACE contains spurious density data points around this time so the density data is more speculative than the other solar wind parameters. This arrival signature may have partially overlapoed with the arrival of CME: 2024-04-11T07:00Z
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-16T09:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-15T03:00Z (-4.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-04-12T06:20Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 670
Longitude (deg): 002W
Latitude (deg): 14S
Half-angular width (deg): 39

Notes: Filament eruption just SW of centre disc. Faint halo on C2 and St A, mainly visible E and N of Sun-Earth line, but probable full halo. Only a couple of usable C3, and close in/very faint. Independently re-analysed by second forecaster and obtained very similar numbers, this fit is a halfway-house but very little adjustment was required. MOSWOC Enlil has the tail of a fictitious 600km/s fast wind initially, and the deterministic arrival of 15/0100UTC is probably not braked enough by the interplanetary medium. The degree of correction to apply is very uncertain. G2 probable.

Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence, after Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 82.53 hour(s)
Difference: 30.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-04-12T22:48Z

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